Point to be noted:
- China must boost its coal supply and avoid a considerable economic slowdown in the current quarter, but Beijing’s cold relations with land of Kangaroos, Australia to complicate trade, as studied by Japanese investment bank Mizuho
- China, being the world’s second-largest economy to face a shortage of power due to two major factors, amplified demand for exports from China and extreme weather conditions, including pressure to decrease carbon emissions
- China produces maximum electricity by burning coal, but in August 2021, the major power plant’s inventory reached 10 year low
China must boost its coal supply in order to avoid considerable economic slowdown this year-end, but Beijing’s unhealthy relations with Australia could complicate the trade, as per investment bank Mizuho.
The huge, China economy is witnessing a power shortage due to most factors, but the two major ones are amplified demand for exports from China and extreme weather conditions, and also pressure to reduce carbon emissions, said President Xi Jinping.
On the global scale, the industrial powerhouse, China is the planet’s biggest releaser of carbon dioxide. The economy produces maximum electricity by burning coal but the major power plant’s inventory touched a 10-year low in August 2021.
Vishnu Varathan, the head of Economics and Strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department, Mizuho, said in a statement “As China clearly needs huge quantities of coal to get its hands on to avoid the quarter slowdown owing to the autocracy of shortage of rolling power, the geopolitical stresses currently going on with the Land of Kangaroos, Australia. This has ultimately waylaid the easiest and highly convenient high calorific coal source from Down Under.
In the previous year, China Stopped purchasing coal from Australia that used to be one of the biggest exporters of coal to the country. It arrived as trade stress between the two countries increased. This was after Australia had backed calls for an international inquiry in China’s management of the Coronavirus disease.
Owing to the same, China stopped purchasing coal from Australia that once was the biggest coal exporter. This situation aroused when the stress soared between two countries just after Australia’s international inquiry.
These resulted in China’s shift towards Indonesia, Russia, and Mongolia among other countries, and try to make up for the ongoing shortfall. In the previous year, the reports disclosed that Indonesian coal miners accepted USD 1.5 million supplies with China.
Indonesia can easily benefit from demand spill-over, but this could be blocked by the ability to fulfill shipments, according to Vishnu. Moreover, China witnesses risk owing to different types of constraints like regulations and logistics. This implies shutter stock economy activity and also attendant kinks in the regional supply, which may not be completely avoided, Vishnu added.
The pressure of Inflation:
Some of the banks already have relegated the growth prospects of China owing to the power crunch. Most observers of this tend to be concerned about a considerable degree of shock in energy price, says Vishnu.
Power shortage of China could result in a price hike for most export goods and this could ultimately lead to a slight rise in consumer inflation in the developed economies, said Kevin Xie, the senior Asia economist, working at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Limitations on electric supply will eventually cut the economic growth and worsen the slowdown due to issues in China’s residential construction industry, said Kevin Xie in a note.
All the energy-intensive industries will be drastically impacted by rationing electricity. The complete industrial sector’s share in the impacted regions with power rationing is around 14% of the China GDP says, Xie. To date, Beijing’s policymakers have not given any signs if China will again start importing coal from Australia. Reports said last week that Indian Firms caught around 2 million Australian coal tons at discounts that were already present in Chinese warehouses.